Vic: More migration needed as Victoria s growth rate set to slow

AAP General News (Australia)
02-01-2000
Vic: More migration needed as Victoria s growth rate set to slow

MELBOURNE, Feb 1 AAP - Victoria is to push for more migrants in response to a report
which predicts a slowdown in population growth due to declining birthrates.

The state's population will reach five million by 2008 but climb only 359,116 over
the subsequent 13 years, the Department of Infrastructure report said.

Population projections released today show that since the mid-1970s, Victoria's birthrate
has been below the level needed to replace the population, declining from almost three
per cent in 1971 to 1.69 per cent in 1997.

Acting Premier John Thwaites said Victoria's projected 2021 population was insufficient
and the shortage was even more critical in regional Victoria.

"If we want to maintain our economic development, we're going to need to increase the
level of migration to Victoria," Mr Thwaites told reporters.

A big investment in infrastructure was needed to stop people of working age leaving
regional Victoria to live in the city.

A first step was the plan for fast rail links between Melbourne and the regional centres
of Bendigo, Ballarat, Geelong and the La Trobe Valley.

Most of Victoria's extra 800,000 people in 2021 will be in Melbourne, with its fringe
suburbs, particularly Melton in the west, experiencing the highest growth rates.

Over the next three decades, Victoria's population problem will be compounded by the
ageing of its population, leaving the state with fewer people of child-bearing and working
age.

By 2021, a quarter of the population will be over 60, though the impact of ageing will
be most felt from 2030 onwards, when the baby boomers reach old age.

Mr Thwaites, who is also Health Minister, said this did not necessarily mean a sicker
population but rather one which was increasingly outside the workforce and demanding recreational
and accommodation facilities from government.

The research revealed a potential bonus for the construction industry as the population
rises and the size of households declines to an expected 2.34 people per home in 2021.

The need for an increased population was a common theme of former Premier Jeff Kennett,
who sparked controversy by lecturing an audience of Melbourne schoolgirls about the low
birth rate of Australian women.

He was widely interpreted as suggesting to the girls that as adults they should consider
having more children to boost the population, though he later claimed he too was talking
about increased immigration.

AAP pjb/er/bar/de

KEYWORD: POPULATION

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